On Sun, 13 Oct 2019 at 16:28, Matthew Miller <mattdm(a)fedoraproject.org> wrote:
On Fri, Oct 11, 2019 at 05:53:26PM -0400, Stephen John Smoogen wrote:
> There has been a shrinking packager problem for years due to multiple problems
Has there? I'm not really seeing a significant change in the number of
people making changes in dist-git over time. See attached svg. Maybe a
little down from 2013-2016, but seems mostly flat 2016-2019.
It's not significantly growing, which may be a problem itself, but let's not
get over-dramatic without evidence.
I think we are talking about 2 different things, and I should have
been clearer in my first reply to explain that.
You are showing we have a constant number of contributors. I was
thinking about active contributors per artifact. Using the charts you
provided, a conservative number would be we have had a near constant
300 active maintainers from 2012 to 2019. There have been dips and
peaks but that seems to be about what we keep.
On this day in 2012, there were 3 releases 16, 17, 18 that these 300
maintainers would have been covering.
16: 10929 src.rpms
17: 11614 src.rpms
18: 12614 src.rpms
(10929+11614+12614) / 300 avg active git users = 117 packages per
active git user. If we assume 16 and 17 were not getting much
attention as 18 was trying to get out the door, we have 42 packages
per active participant.
On this day (2019-10-14) in 2019, there are 3 releases which look like
29: 21847 (Everything Srpms) 708 modular srpms
30: 21292 (Everything Srpms) 472 modular srpms
31: 21191 (Everything Srpms) 911 modular srpms
(21847+21292+21191+708+472+911) / 300 avg active git users = 221
packages per active git user. Again assuming people are just looking
at 31, it is 73 packages / active git user. If we had a steady state
growth in maintainers we would need 226 more active git contributors
at the moment.
If we look at instead of src.rpms but looking at how many deliverables
(aka how many arch.rpm/noarch.rpm) we have in F18 we had 40156
packages in x86_64. In F31 we have 89218 rpms + 3188 mod-rpms (92406).
So we moved from 133 rpms per active git maintainer to 308 rpms per
active git maintainer. In this case we would currently be at 670
So from that perception it "feels" like we have a shrinking packager
problem. If we had a growing packager set then either we would be
still near 133 rpms or less. And again I realize that this isn't a
rational count. We would need to work out how many packages get
changed per release, what the average amount of packages are for the
actual active people per time.. someone might have taken 100 packages
in 2015, worked really hard until 2017 and now is no longer involved.
Other factors change what the count means as packages are broken down
and remerged into different things (aka TeX)
Stephen J Smoogen.