ARM as a primary architecture

[Chris Murphy]

On Mar 22, 2012, at 1:23 AM, drago01 wrote:

> On Thu, Mar 22, 2012 at 8:16 AM, Chris Murphy <lists at colorremedies.com> wrote:
>> our "computers" are about to become typewriters. It will not be a decade longer.
>> 
>> http://www.engadget.com/2012/02/03/canalys-more-smartphones-than-pcs-shipped-in-2011/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+weblogsinc%2Fengadget+%28Engadget%29
> 
> While I agree that we will see more smartphones and tablets in the
> future the people that actually replace there traditional computers
> with tablets or even smartphones are near zero.

You're assuming they had a computer to begin with. The data is noisy but there's a significant minority who do not have computers, now buying a smart phone. This will grow. They may never end up with a desktop. Even Apple has disconnected a requirement for having a desktop. My parents are candidates for replacing their laptop with just an iPad. Maybe 1/4 of the friends I have use a desktop/laptop once a week or less. And increasingly less often. Their phone? Can't live without it. It's already a primary device.


> Sells do not really tell the whole story as many people simply don't
> have a need to buy new laptops/desktops because what they have is
> "good enough" so they spend there money on other gadgets.

Mobile devices are replaced more frequently than desktops, which could also skew the data toward mobile. But Apple didn't become the biggest company in the world by market capitalization, eclipsing Microsoft and even Exxon-Mobile, by selling desktops and laptops. It's iOS. (And the iMonostore.)

Desktop computers are used overwhelmingly for email and web browsing. It's total overkill. The desktop computer is a super computer that no consumer really needs. It's a dying market. It's now servers and mobile. The transitional element will be laptops/ultrabooks (netbooks obviously are dead) which will keep desktop operating systems and x86 around as a significant minority, but not for long.

Thunderbolt on an ARM tablet to connect a larger display, bluetooth keyboard, and internet access and the overwhelming majority can do what they need to do. The economies of scale of desktops, even in business, is dropping rapidly. For home users, it has already happened a while ago. They don't need a desktop. They probably don't need a laptop either.


Chris Murphy