Delay? Looks bad for Fedora

[Marc Schwartz]

On Tue, 2003-11-04 at 09:23, Randy Vice wrote:
> On Tue, 4 Nov 2003, Timothy Murphy wrote:
> > So I don't think RedHat is wicked --
> > I just think they may have made a commercial mistake.
> 
> Agreed, and poor timing as well now that Novell/Ximian is buying out SuSE.  
> I'll DL Fedora when it's released, but I'm keeping a sharp on Novell's 
> Linux distro, they may be wanting to pick up those of us who don't fit in 
> RH's new scheme.  Guess the next six months will be an interesting time to 
> see where the chips fall.
> 
> Randy


I don't see this as being bad timing at all. Actually quite the
opposite, which is why I posted the Novell/SUSE release in the first
place. The writing is on the wall regarding the major commercial
distros, which is why Mandrake will be next. 

The commercial vendors must focus their core business model where there
is revenue to be generated. No, not for the shareholders, but *most*
importantly for their employees who depend upon the commercial vendors
for regular paychecks that don't bounce. If you lose your employees, you
can forget about the customers AND the shareholders...there won't be
anything left to have equity in.

If the commercial vendors remain financially viable, they are then in a
position to be good citizens to the community at large.

The RHEL/Fedora 'split', in my mind, was a proactive recognition by RH
that they needed to change in a fundamental way to remain financially
viable and importantly independent, while still remaining committed to
the community at large. They did not have to do the latter, but did.

If you gain marketshare in the broad corporate environment, that will
eventually flow down to the small office and home user in time.

The home desktop environment is not a financially viable market at this
point for any distro, which is why Szulik came out and supports most
home desktop users staying with Windows for the foreseeable future
(http://news.zdnet.co.uk/software/linuxunix/0,39020390,39117575,00.htm).
Those that have the skills or inclination to try Linux will do so, but
that is a small percentage of the market...though it will increase over
time.

We can debate the facts, but the perceptions are the reality. Until the
majority of home users can pick up the phone and call Dell, HP or
Gateway, or walk into Best Buy, OfficeDepot or CompUSA and buy a PC with
any Linux pre-installed and configured, the home desktop market
(including SOHO) will not be broadly viable.

It is also becoming increasingly apparent that as the major community
based projects increase in size, the resources required to continue to
support them require funding, which is a problem when most users want it
(no, *expect* it) for free. So, people can donate money (not just time)
to the community projects, corporations can fund them (ie. as RH and Sun
are doing) or they become self-limiting.

And...before you point to Debian, look here:

http://www.debian.org/donations

Consider all of the non-profit foundations that have been set up to
cover the costs of the infrastructure required (ie. web sites, etc.) to
support the major community projects. People may be willing to volunteer
time, but there are other costs associated with these projects and in
many cases the "hosts" at some point reach a limit in terms of what they
can continue to provide without compensation.

I for one hope that Fedora is successful. It can be the fertile ground
for leading edge applications and technology, even if at some cost of
stability. If it is successful, it likely means that RH is viable and
can continue to contribute to the community at large. In that regard, RH
can justify funding Fedora as the basis for an R&D platform that
supports and feeds the paid-for Enterprise versions, which seems to be
the message.

Back to the original title of this thread...it is the basis for my hope.
It shows that quality and not a calendar, is the priority.

Ultimately, the marketplace, not evangelism, will determine where Fedora
goes and where Linux in general goes. The seeds of OSS have been
planted...it is up to us to water and fertilize them. If Fedora fails
and you want a community based distro, then Debian may very well become
the only viable option. Is that good or bad...time will tell.

Marc