On Mar 22, 2012, at 3:16 AM, drago01 wrote:
I said the people I was talking about used them as toys. (Please read
what I wrote and don't try to refute stuff that isn't even written
there).
Don't get in a huff over things I haven't said either. Most people are also very
entertained by these toys.
Again see the enterprise part "(it does make sense for some uses
though)." ... those are those uses. I am not saying tablets are
useless. I am just saying those are *different* devices.
You don't replace a plane with a car either.
That's improper logic. The iPad is replacing 15 pounds of Jeppessen charts. Paper.
They are going directly from paper to tablets. No laptop in between. As an (inactive)
pilot, I fully expect professional pilots to migrate strictly to tablets on the road, and
maybe intermittently use a desktop/laptop as a transitional device. That is already
underway.
Well I'd prefer a real boot or an ereader over a computer or tablet.
My dad is 82. My sister bought him a Kindle for his birthday middle of last year. He uses
it more than the laptop, more than real books. The transition took maybe a couple of
months.
Most people that buy smartphones today *do* have laptops / desktoĆ¼s.
In the whole world? You're sure about that? I'm not.
Actually speed isn't an advantage see the (now dead) netbook
hype. For
most people current speed is "good enough" (hence no need to go buy a
new computer every year).
I see this as 2-4 years for the consumer desktop upgrade market's meaningful
existence. 4-6 years for laptops. People use them less and less already, and will upgrade
them less frequently. And at the point where what they want to do on mobile no longer
requires them to go to laptop? Why have one?
Office, DTP and probably others or in short "content creation".
My customers are desktop publishing. It's a small market. And yes, they will continue
to buy more powerful machines longer than the rest of the market. But look at where Adobe
is emphasizing new development. Cloud applications. For content creators.
One of my largest customers has done more training and modernization for content creators
recently than in years, primarily driven by ebook. That demand is not ebook on laptop,
it's ebook on mobile devices.
>> So no there is still a marked beyond the consumption only
devices
>> (tablets) and the data centers (servers). The world is not black and
>> white.
>
> It is a shrinking market.
it is a saturated marked.
Yeah, it's a popping bubble.
Chris Murphy